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In this past weekend’s missive I wrote: “So…Should I “Buy The F*$(@!# NOKO?” My best guess currently is – probably. But not yet.” “In our port...

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  • Technically Speaking: COT Positioning Back To Extreme...
    By on August 21, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s missive I wrote: “So…Should I “Buy The F*$(@!# NOKO?” My best guess currently is – probably. But not yet.” “In our portfolios, we will wait for confirmation the current sell-off has abated before adding additional risk exposure to portfolios. In recent ye...
  • Signs Of Distress
    By on August 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The world is edging closer to the final moments after which everything will be forever changed. Grand delusions, perpetuated over decades, will finally hit the limits of reality and collapse in on themselves. We’re over-budget and have eaten deeply into the principal balances of all of our main t...
  • High-Profile Sectors Start To Roll Over!
    By on August 18, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Long credit cycles like the current one always end with a crash. But first they deteriorate. The headline numbers remain positive while under the surface a growing list of sectors start to falter. It’s only when the latter reach a critical mass that market psychology turns dark. How far along is t...
  • The Dow Falls 274 Points As ‘Eclipse Fever’ Hits ...
    By on August 18, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Have we now entered a time of major financial shaking?  On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 274 points.  The was the largest decline for the Dow since May, and high yield bonds were down dramatically as well.  Many are blaming the terror attack in Barcelona and “instability ...
  • What the Mainstream Doesn’t Get About Bitcoin
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The real demand for bitcoin will not be known until a global financial crisis guts confidence in central banks and politicized capital controls. I’ve been writing about cryptocurrencies and bitcoin for many years. For example: Could Bitcoin Become a Global Reserve Currency? (November 7, 201...
  • Really Bad Ideas – Part III: Government Debt Is...
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The failure of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking to produce a government-managed utopia is generating very few mea culpas, but lots of rationalizations. Strangest of all these rationalizations might be the notion that government debt is not really a liability, but an asset. Where personal...
  • Top 3 Technical Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    “I always will be an Elliottician, but other technical tools have merit and are indeed worthwhile: they allow me to build a case, build a more confident reason for making a forecast and for taking a trade; making a trading decision.” -Jeffrey Kennedy I recently asked Trader’s Class...
  • Gold Stocks Coiled Spring
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have largely ground sideways this year, really lagging gold’s strong rally.  That lack of upside has decimated sentiment, leaving a bearish wasteland bereft of hope.  But this deeply-out-of-favor sector is actually a coiled spring, ready to surge dramatically as psychol...
  • Dumb and Dumber: The Money Keeps Pouring In
    By on August 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Someday, stock, bond and real estate valuations will matter again. And the mechanism by which this return to sanity is achieved will probably be the torrent of money now flowing in from people who, for various reasons, don’t care about (or understand) the prices they’re paying. Millennials, for ...
  • Patrick Byrne: Why Cryptocurrencies Matter
    By on August 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    This week we talk with Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com, and rare courageous voice within corporate America raising concern that powerful interests on Wall Street are destroying US companies for profit, robbing investors and destabilizing our financial system in the process. Byrne has been an e...
  • Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market...
    By on August 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Quick take: At the end of July the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 103% above its long-term trend, up from 101% the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a patt...
  • Technically Speaking: Bullish But Bearish
    By on August 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last week, I was on vacation with my family taking a much-needed respite from the weekly workload. The good news is that usually when I go out of town, the market crashes. Such was not the case, and in fact, the Dow Industrials hit all-time highs. I pay little attention to the Dow due to t...
  • Plan For The Worst
    By on August 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Currently, things could not be better. Stocks are hitting all time highs. Confidence is at record levels, and investors are “all in.” But maybe it is just for those reasons that we should take a pause. Records are records for a reason. Every strongly trending bull market throughout history has...
  • A Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on August 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter...
  • Technically Speaking: Visualizing 10-Reasons For Caut...
    By on August 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I know…I know… There seems to be absolutely nothing that can derail the current bull market. Geopolitical conflict – NOPE Political intrigue – NOPE Fed Reserve reducing liquidity to the markets – NOPE Lack of expected tax cuts, reform, and infrastructure spending – NOPE, NOPE, and NOPE....
  • Ron Rosen: The Dollar And Equities Will Plunge Togeth...
    By on August 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The dollar has been falling lately, which isn’t what a lot of people expected with the Fed being the only major central bank that’s raising interest rates. Higher yields on dollar balances should, according to basic economics, have attracted foreign capital to Treasury paper, thus putting upward...

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